"Handicapping the Handicapped"

Mr. and Mrs. America, and all the ships at seas, time to handicap the handicapped. I’ll try and explain who might win the presidential election and who likely will lose. Let’s get started, here is how I see it as of today:

Democrats
Barack Obama will be the candidate. The real question is will Biden stay? Some think Biden has an eye on 2016 and would like to be free to begin his money gathering and glad-handing a.s.a.p. The same goes for Hillary. She might leave her job as well.

Why He Could Win: The President has weathered a huge storm of personal attacks on everything from his name, place of birth, race, religion, education, accomplishments, loyalties and how much he knows in general. He has been under constant scrutiny and criticism and kept his composure. He did get Bin Laden and other highly placed Al Qaeda senior leadership with drone attacks and then that famous Seal Team raid. He has a huge war chest for the campaign that some say is 100 million dollars or more. He speaks well (with a teleprompter) and some people like his “cool” factor. He benefits greatly from a dysfunctional Republican Party.

Why He Could Lose: He promised everyone change but there has been little change in what matters most to Americans, their well-being, having a job. Many think the other changes haven’t benefitted the average American much at all. In fact, there is more infighting and partisanship now in Washington than before Obama started. When he had control of the Congress, he didn’t get much done except obsess over Obama care. Even with a democrat controlled congress it took 2 sweet-heart deals at the last minute (bribe?) with two Congressmen to get their votes. The country was taken to the absolute brink of a shutdown and insolvency. Our international credit rating dropped for the first time in history. Obama’s popularity has dropped from the mid 70’s percent to below 50% and the economy isn’t really as improved as manipulated numbers on a page suggest. Most experts agree his presidency has been troubled at best and he is definitely vulnerable to defeat. “Change” will be an impossible sell to Americans the second time round and he can hardly use “stay the course” when that course appears more and more like a train wreck.

Republicans
Mitt Romney (the left, center and right of the party)
Mitt should get the nomination but he just can’t stop, stopping himself. He has a reputation of saying whatever you want to hear then saying the opposite later on. He is the guy that said if America does something wrong we should say we are sorry but in the same exact sentence said that he would never apologize for America. Huh? He’s told lies about everything from what his real first name is to what organizations he’s belonged to or not. He’s been tripped up so many times. Then just a few days ago his senior advisor on an interview said that when the nomination has been secured Romney will take all his positions and shake them up like an etch- a- sketch and start all over. That means if you voted for him as a nominee, he may not be the nominee you voted for after his next chameleon-like reincarnation. Who is he really? What does he stand for really? He’s governed an Obama-like health plan in Massachusetts that he is proud to say worked but at the next stop on the campaign he talks about how he hates Obama care. He looks good in a suit, speaks articulately (even if what he is saying is suspect) and has a track record in business and government that is pretty good. He could fix this country’s economic problems but what are his foreign policy positions? That’s the problem; no one knows because no one really knows who he is. He has to get stronger and he has to stop trying to schmooze the centrists in the Republican party while at the same time schmooze the Santorum hard core right. When you do that no one trusts you. If he can get out of his own way, and get his aides to stop saying things that support the notion that he is a Gumby, (it’s a big if) then he has a fighting chance to win it all.

Rick Santorum
I can’t figure out what he is up too? Can you? He doesn’t really think that becoming the William Jennings Bryan of his day is going to get him into the White House does he? I mean it’s not even going to get him a nomination. William Jennings Bryan ran for the Presidency 4 times near the end of the 1800’s and early 1900’s. He lost all 4 times primarily because he was such a hard core Christian fundamentalist, a bible toting, bible pounding, moralizing orator that few outside his like-minded bible-belters would vote for him. The point is when you come across as an extremist you only get the extremists to vote for you. Let me put it this way: Billy Graham was one of the most revered evangelical ministers ever, adored by millions, supported by millions BUT he would have never have been elected President of the US. That’s why we got rid of theocracy 300 years ago.
So Santorum’s rants about abortion, homosexuality, same-sex marriages, birth control, premarital sex, pornography and so forth will not get him a nomination. He has to know that, so then what is he up too? Is he angling for a TV show like ex-governor Huckabee did? Is he trying to pump up future sales of a forthcoming book? Rants get you face time on camera but they don’t get you elected. His loss in Pennsylvania by 18% in his last try for reelection to the Senate should have made that clear to him.

Newt Gingrich
Newt reminds me of the guy who has just enough cache left over from the salad days in Washington to make a small run at it. Then one day he looks up and sees the front runners all stumbling, falling and he figures hell, let’s make a run at it. He knows he’s smarter than the field (IQ), and he clearly has the inside the beltway experience but he also knows his ethics violations and personal baggage are lead weights around his ankles. The truth is if he were about 10 years younger and only on the 2nd wife not the 4th, he could probably be a very serious contender. As it is, he’s having a ball scaring the younger dudes, while spending his sugar daddy’s money. It’s long been thought that Newt was just drumming up attention for future book sales. Hey there is no such thing as bad publicity. Still and all he’s had no real chance despite his one flavor of the week, week. He’s won the Southern voters that don’t mind people with some personal baggage (they relate). He’s lost the southern voters that go for Santorum’s fire and brimstone message. Pity the southern voter that doesn’t want to vote for Santorum cuz he’s a Yankee, and doesn’t want to vote for Gingrich because he’s a past sinner. They probably wish they could bring Jefferson Davis back from the dead.

Ron Paul
If you actually listen to him he makes the most sense but as we all know making sense dooms you right from the git go. He says this about the wars, “We marched right in there and we can march right back out again”. He is for a fair tax, for substantially, substantially less government involvement in American lives. He is for sensible regulation of the medical and health insurance industry that would allow for profits but would not gouge the consumer. He is not for Obama care. He was for taking the wasted money from wars, he never thought we should be involved in for so long, and putting that into education and scientific research. He would insist on a balanced budget annually and reducing deficits from 16 years of government overspending. Ron’s biggest drawback is that he has always been labeled a kook. He’s never been able to shake that label. The things he talks about now, he was talking about 12 years ago but of course back then everyone was rolling large ($) and no one wanted to listen to a man talking restraint. That plus he is 70+ years old, and he doesn’t make foolish statements like the others so unfortunately that doesn’t endear him to a media that is always scrounging around for the next sound bite. Sorry Dr. Paul, rationality doesn’t sell newspapers or give radio talk show hosts stuff to blather about.

Who Wins?
If Romney rights his own ship, and focuses on Obama’s failings, he could be the next President. The American people are worn out and frustrated to the max. The American people are looking for a leader that puts the country and their needs first over personal and political agendas. The question is (is) Mitt that guy? You tell me.

If Obama just lays low for a while longer he may not have to do much to win reelection. The Republicans may lose it before Obama even tries to win it. Then again, he has to know it didn’t go well the first term; the people are pissed off, no longer willing to drink the Kool-Aid, and perhaps looking “for change”? Wouldn’t that be an irony?


Wild Card Factor
The two (2) wild cards are:
1. A third party forming that caters to the center of both Republican and Democrats. That could happen and a candidate could be a Colin Powell for example. There is serious talk.
2. Second wild card is Republicans drafting (talk into) a compromise nominee like a Chris Christy.